Analysts Warn Hormuz Blockade Could Send Oil Above $300
Some analysts think that oil prices could reach more than $300 per barrel in the case of a full blockade of the Gulf of Hormuz. Home Oil Prices Oil Futures Rig Count Energy Energy-General Oil Prices Crude Oil Heating Oil Gas Prices Natural Gas Coal Company News Interviews Geopolitics Energy-General Oil Prices Crude Oil Heating Oil Gas Prices Natural Gas Coal Company News Interviews Geopolitics Alternative Energy…
Wild Oil Price Forecasts: Some Predict $350 if Strait of Hormuz Is Blocked | OilPrice.com
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RT @MartinLZinn: Just as Beijing’s huge stimulus programme helped the West recover from the 2008 financial crisis, once again China is prov…
RT @maxotte_says: Arnaud Bertrand hat immer sehr gute geopolitische Analysen.
This hasn't been talked about much but it may be one of the most consequential revelations of the US's war on Iran: the fact that China has effectively replaced OPEC as the global price setter for oil. It isn't me saying it but Igor Sechin, CEO of Rosnef, the largest oil producer in Russia - itself a member of OPEC+ (https://t.co/ckinOaHzJ7) And Sechin isn't alone in saying so: many Western analysts - such as Javier Blas, Bloomberg's top energy analyst - are essentially saying the same thing (see https://t.co/cpcCKLdMCv) How so? Well, China has demonstrated during the Iran war an extraordinary ability to…
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simply walk away from the market and slash its oil imports by millions of barrels per day - during a months on end. At peak, they slashed imports by 5.5 million barrels per day, the equivalent of India's total consumption. They can, quite literally, switch an entire India's worth of demand on and off, at will. This is mainly because they have immense strategic oil reserves, estimated to stand at 1.4 billion barrels (https://t.co/jyTb2Srcnz) - 4 times bigger than the US's (the world's second largest inventory). In a nutshell, prices being, as everyone knows, set by supply and demand, China now controls the demand side in a bigger way than OPEC controls the supply side. So, as Sechin puts it, they now call the shots. All the more given that OPEC is weaker than it's ever been with the recent loss of the UAE, the largest producer ever to walk out. This is what effectively saved the world's economy during the Iran war: analyst after analyst predicted that the closure of Hormuz would make oil prices skyrocket to stratospheric levels, like $200-$300 a barrel (https://t.co/PTU64I3zGl). However, Hormuz is still closed and prices sit at... $91 a barrel, after briefly peaking at around $110 in April (https://t.co/eufRaK4EnB). China almost single-handedly made this happen with their flexibility on the demand side: what Hormuz made the world lose in supply, China basically cut in demand, which stabilized prices. Long story short, as the saying goes: "never let a good crisis go to waste." China used this one to effect a friendly takeover of the most powerful cartel on earth - without even joining it.
Fascinating argument by Bloomberg's top energy analyst Javier Blas 👇: he argues that China effectively saved the world economy during the Iran war by absorbing the brunt of the global oil supply shock on its own, without visible economic damage. According to his calculations, China "cut its average daily waterborne oil imports by the same amount as the…
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combined oil consumption of Germany, France and the UK." And, still according to Blas, they "did so without suffering economic harm" because they could rely on many levers: their huge strategic petroleum reserve, a massive surge in EV usage, their remaining coal-fired electricity capacity, and coal-to-chemicals replacing lost feedstocks. Had China not been ready to absorb that blow, a good argument can be made that the economic damage to the West, and the world at large, would have spiraled far beyond what we saw. Effectively, China's energy strategy at all levels (petroleum reserves, EVs, etc.) and its ability to withstand huge supply shocks paid off for everyone, not just for them. It sounds awfully familiar: in 2008 too it was China's stimulus package and continuous buying of US Treasuries that averted a complete breakdown of the global financial system. So twice in 20 years the country the West loves to present as a "threat" to the global economy effectively saved it from a US-made global economic disaster 🤷
Original title: Wild Oil Price Forecasts: Some Predict $350 if Strait of Hormuz Is Blocked | OilPrice.com
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